The Expected Return of each NBA Draft Position

Quantifying relative draft position value by analyzing Wins Over Replacement vs. Salary

Every year, 30 teams led by the greatest coaches and basketball players in the world grind it out to win the last game of the season. The brightest basketball minds search desperately to find the right mixture of talent, coaching, and star power, and pray for a little bit of luck. But before the season starts, before the games are played, the outcome has already been decided.

“Every battle is won or lost before it’s ever fought.” – Sun Tzu, The Art of War.

“Championships are won with defense” the cliche goes, but in reality, championships are won with a single phone call to the Barclays Center in Brooklyn long before a season begins. Before a brush is lifted, the canvas must first be prepared. For every team, there is no event of greater importance than the NBA Draft.

The Draft. Where dynasties are built on the back of a Tim Duncan, or where franchises are sucked into lottery hell by a Darko Miličić. An event where not a single basketball is dribbled, but one that determines the fate of billion-dollar franchisees for years to come. I am absolutely fascinated by it.  Continue reading “The Expected Return of each NBA Draft Position”

Nylon Calculus – Birthday Bias in the NBA

I recently wrote a guest column for Nylon Calculus investigating whether or not Birthday Bias exists in the NBA.

Check it out!

Freelance Friday: Birthday Bias in the NBA