MVP and “Best Player on Best Team”

Every year when talking about who should win NBA MVP, the following argument is always brought up:

MVP traditionally goes to the best player on the best team, therefore Player X should win because he is the best player on the best team.

I’ve always been bothered by this argument because of two reasons. One, it’s a lazy argument. People don’t have to watch a second of basketball to argue this. Two, if MVP always went to the best player on the best team, there would be nothing to debate besides whether Kevin Durant is better than Steph Curry.

Now, to investigate if this argument is actually true. Does MVP actually usually go to best player on the best team??

The Data

I gathered data from every season starting from 1976-1977 to find who the MVP was that season, what his team record was, and what was their overall seed. This is 41 seasons of data.

Season	Name	Position	Team	Wins	Team Rank
2016–17	Russell Westbrook	Guard	Oklahoma City Thunder	47	10
2015–16	Stephen Curry	Guard	Golden State Warriors	73	1
2014–15	Stephen Curry	Guard	Golden State Warriors	67	1
2013–14	Kevin Durant	Forward	Oklahoma City Thunder	59	2
2012–13	LeBron James	Forward	Miami Heat	66	1
2011–12	LeBron James	Forward	Miami Heat	46	4
2010–11	Derrick Rose	Guard	Chicago Bulls	62	1
2009–10	LeBron James	Forward	Cleveland Cavaliers	61	1
2008–09	LeBron James	Forward	Cleveland Cavaliers	66	1
2007–08	Kobe Bryant	Guard	Los Angeles Lakers	57	3
2006–07	Dirk Nowitzki	Forward	Dallas Mavericks	67	1
2005–06	Steve Nash	Guard	Phoenix Suns	54	4
2004–05	Steve Nash	Guard	Phoenix Suns	62	1
2003–04	Kevin Garnett	Forward/Center	Minnesota Timberwolves	58	2
2002–03	Tim Duncan	Forward/Center	San Antonio Spurs	60	1
2001–02	Tim Duncan	Forward/Center	San Antonio Spurs	58	2
2000–01	Allen Iverson	Guard	Philadelphia 76ers	56	2
1999–00	Shaquille O'Neal	Center	Los Angeles Lakers	67	1
1998–99	Karl Malone	Forward	Utah Jazz	37	1
1997–98	Michael Jordan	Guard	Chicago Bulls	62	1
1996–97	Karl Malone	Forward	Utah Jazz	64	2
1995–96	Michael Jordan	Guard	Chicago Bulls	72	1
1994–95	David Robinson	Center	San Antonio Spurs	62	1
1993–94	Hakeem Olajuwon	Center	Houston Rockets	58	2
1992–93	Charles Barkley	Forward	Phoenix Suns	62	1
1991–92	Michael Jordan	Guard	Chicago Bulls	67	1
1990–91	Michael Jordan	Guard	Chicago Bulls	61	2
1989–90	Magic Johnson	Guard	Los Angeles Lakers	63	1
1988–89	Magic Johnson	Guard	Los Angeles Lakers	57	3
1987–88	Michael Jordan	Guard	Chicago Bulls	50	8
1986–87	Magic Johnson	Guard	Los Angeles Lakers	65	1
1985–86	Larry Bird	Forward	Boston Celtics	67	1
1984–85	Larry Bird	Forward	Boston Celtics	63	1
1983–84	Larry Bird	Forward	Boston Celtics	62	1
1982–83	Moses Malone	Center	Philadelphia 76ers	65	1
1981–82	Moses Malone	Center	Houston Rockets	46	8
1980–81	Julius Erving	Forward	Philadelphia 76ers	62	1
1979–80	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	Center	Los Angeles Lakers	60	2
1978–79	Moses Malone	Center	Houston Rockets	47	7
1977–78	Bill Walton	Center	Portland Trail Blazers	58	1
1976–77	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	Center	Los Angeles Lakers	53	1

Analysis

The following is a breakdown of team seed versus the percentage of MVPs won in the past 41 seasons and a logistic regression with Seed as the independent variable and number of MVPs won as the dependent.

#1 – 61% (25)

#2 – 19.5% (8)

#3 – 4.9% (2)

#4 – 4.9% (2)

#7 – 2.4% (1)

#8 – 2.4% (2)

#10 – 2.4% (1)  <- Westbrook, 2017

I will grudingly admit, “Best player on best team” has some merit to it. Traditionally, MVP has gone to best player best player 61% of the team. Of course, this also means that the best player on the best team does NOT win MVP 39% of the time. Guess the validity of this depends if 60% meets your definition of “traditionally.”

The data definitely does not show  a linear relationship. Looks more like exponential.

Obviously, this line is not a great fit, but it still has a great R squared of 73.65%, meaning that the function above explains about 73% of the variation in number of MVPs won.

Conclusion

Despite not being a very strong or convincing argument (IMO) “best player on best team” does have the data to back it up. In the past 41 seasons, the best player on the best team has won MVP 61% of the time and there appears to be some correlation between team overall seed and MVP.

Of course, this is still a qualitative, media-driven award. As a salty Rockets fan, I’m sure that even if Houston ends up with the best record in the league, there will be some other narrative that pops up to deny Harden MVP again.